US Recession Analysis – June 2025
Is a US recession likely in the next 3, 6, or 12 months? Interactive dashboard – macro data, market probabilities, and behavioral risk signals all in one place.
Executive Summary
- 3 Months: Low risk. No clear recession onset by September 2025.
- 6 Months: Moderate risk. Softening, not recessionary.
- 12 Months: Increased risk. Macro at stall speed, ~28% chance by summer 2026. Not base case, but watch closely.
Google search behavior: No panic. Searches for “recession” (8,194 daily, June 21) far below major spike levels.
Key Charts
Unemployment Rate (%)
GDP (Billions, Quarterly)
Google Searches: "Recession"
Market-Implied Recession Probability
Macro Recession Risk Table
| Indicator | Current Value | Trend & Direction |
|---|---|---|
| Unemployment Rate (%) | 4.2 | Slightly rising |
| GDP (B USD) | 23,528 | Flat/slowing |
| Money/Credit (T USD) | 7.4 | Flat/weak |
| Business Cond. Index | 10.6 | Rising |
| Sahm Rule Recession Prob. | 0.27 | Very low |
| Polymarket 2025 Prob. | 28% | Moderate |
| Google Searches (21 Jun) | 8,194 | No panic |
Professional Commentary & Outlook
Outlook
Macro Backdrop: Labor market remains healthy but with gradual increases in unemployment. GDP growth stalling. Credit conditions lack expansion. No imminent shock, but fragile.
Behavioral/Sentiment: Google search activity shows calm. No panic movements in the public yet, which generally precedes recession onsets.
Market Implied Risk: Polymarket contract implies a 28% probability of a 2025 US recession – aligns with a soft landing/growth scare scenario base case.
Risks to Watch
- Unemployment surging above 4.5% could trigger faster probability re-rating.
- Two consecutive negative GDP quarters would move risk decisively higher.
- Panic spikes in search or layoff headlines not present, but would be strong signals if they occur.
Summary
Modest recession risk remains, especially beyond mid-2025, but continued (slow) economic expansion is base case for now. Exogenous shocks or a credit event are primary downside tail risks.