U.S. Recession Risk Dashboard
April 13, 2026 · Macro indicators, model probabilities, and market-implied odds
Executive summary
Hard-data gauges still describe an economy in expansion: unemployment is in the low‑4% range, the Sahm rule statistic sits below the common 0.5 trigger, and the New York Fed’s smoothed recession probability remains far from stress readings. At the same time, prediction markets assign a material (~31%) chance that the National Bureau of Economic Research will date a U.S. recession beginning by the end of 2026—reflecting policy, trade, and financial-stability tail risks that do not show up cleanly in monthly labor prints.
- Next 3 months: Near-term recession risk reads as low: labor is not deteriorating at the pace typically associated with imminent contraction, and model-based probabilities are subdued.
- 6–12 months: Risk rises to moderate: forecast dispersion is wide, and forward-looking prices embed a non-trivial slump scenario even while coincident data look resilient.
- Public attention: Google search interest in the word “recession” has cooled sharply versus prior-year bursts, consistent with a narrative focused on soft landing rather than imminent crisis—while still leaving room for fast repricing around shocks.
Indicator snapshot
| Indicator | Latest reading | Takeaway |
|---|---|---|
| Sahm rule (SAHMCURRENT) | 0.20 (March 2026) | Below the 0.50 threshold associated with recession starts; no Sahm trigger. |
| Civilian unemployment rate (UNRATE) | 4.3% (March 2026) | Consistent with a tight labor market softening gradually, not cliff-style job loss. |
| NY Fed smoothed recession probability (RECPROUSM156N) | 0.48% (April 2026) | Model-implied 12‑month ahead probability remains low versus historical stress episodes. |
| Real GDP (GDPC1, level) | $24,055.7B chained 2017 dollars | Level series carrying the most recent quarterly print; no negative growth signal in the published vintage. |
| Economic surprise (BCIG, weekly) | +6.2 (week of Sep 12, 2025) | Positive surprises on net over the latest segment in the series; useful for tracking inflection as data arrive. |
| Job openings, total nonfarm (MMMFFAQ027S) | ~8.19 million (Q4 2025) | Elevated openings relative to history, though down from post-pandemic peaks—consistent with cooling, not collapse. |
| Google search volume: “recession” (EN‑US) | 2,154 daily (Apr 11, 2026); ~249.6k monthly average | Daily interest has mean-reverted lower after prior macro scares; useful as a sentiment flare monitor. |
| Prediction market: U.S. recession by end of 2026 | ~31% implied “Yes” | Traders assign meaningful weight to a dated recession outcome even as monthly indicators look benign—use as one forward-looking complement, not a forecast. |
Prediction market figure reflects publicly posted contract prices on Polymarket around the survey window. Search statistics: DailySearchVolume.com (EN‑US).
Commentary and outlook
The tension in this dashboard is between coincident strength—jobs still growing, unemployment controlled—and forward prices that embed a meaningful chance of contraction before year-end 2026. That wedge is not unusual late in cycles: financial conditions, fiscal stance, and external shocks can move faster than monthly employment reports.
For asset allocation, the balanced read is to keep recession hedges and liquidity buffers proportional to the priced tail (~30% on the contract referenced above) while avoiding single-indicator alarmism. Updates to payrolls, initial claims, leading indicators, and corporate credit spreads remain the first places a soft landing thesis would break—if labor turns abruptly or financial conditions tighten reflexively, the Sahm statistic and model probabilities can reprice quickly.