U.S. Recession Hazard Panel
Hard data, market-implied odds, and public attention—April 6, 2026
Executive Summary
The U.S. expansion still looks intact on the indicators that typically move first: payroll stress is contained, the Sahm rule gap is not in its conventional trigger zone, and the New York Fed’s dynamic recession-probability reading remains very low in the latest daily print. Real GDP, shown here as the level of chained-dollar output, is not rolling over in the window we chart.
Three months. With unemployment near 4.3% and model-implied recession odds under one percent, a near-term NBER downturn is not the base case. Residual risks are mostly event-driven (policy, geopolitics, credit accidents) rather than a synchronized hard-data slide.
Six months. The outlook is “soft landing unless shocked.” Corporate liquidity parked in money-market vehicles has continued to rise, which can reflect both precaution and yield-seeking; it is not a clean recession signal on its own but warrants monitoring alongside credit spreads and capex plans.
Twelve months. Polymarket’s contract on a U.S. recession by year-end 2026 has recently traded near a ~32% implied probability for the “Yes” side—material tail risk even while today’s activity data look calm. Separately, daily U.S. Google queries for “recession” (EN-US) have cooled sharply versus the prior year, with the latest handle near 2,886 per day as of early April—consistent with fading panic after a stressful 2025, not a fresh public capitulation.
Sahm gap vs. unemployment
NY Fed recession probability (daily model)
Real GDP level (GDPC1, billions, chained 2017 dollars)
Risk Dashboard
| Indicator | Latest | Read | Implication |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sahm gap (SAHMCURRENT) | 0.20 (monthly, Mar 2026) | Below trigger | Not signaling the classic Sahm recession rule; job-market deterioration would need to accelerate to change the call. |
| Unemployment rate (UNRATE) | 4.3% (Mar 2026) | Contained | Levels consistent with a tight-but-normalizing labor market rather than layoff-wave dynamics. |
| NY Fed recession probability (RECPROUSM156N) | ~0.48% (daily, Apr 3, 2026) | Very low | Model-implied near-term recession odds remain depressed; watch for persistence if credit or margins crack. |
| Real GDP (GDPC1) | ~24,066 (daily level, early Apr 2026) | Stable | No obvious break in the level series; growth scares should be validated with income, sales, and hours—not headlines alone. |
| Money-market fund assets (MMMFFAQ027S) | ~$8.19 trillion notional (latest quarterly print on file) | Elevated | Liquidity hoarding can precede stress; pair with spreads, bank lending, and guidance cuts for confirmation. |
| Bloomberg conditions (BCIG, weekly) | ~6.2 (latest in series sample) | Mid-cycle | Consumer conditions have rebounded from 2022 lows; treat as context for discretionary exposure, not a binary switch. |
| Google search: “recession” (EN-US) | ~2,886/day (early Apr 2026) | Cooling vs. 2025 | Public attention has mean-reverted from prior-year spikes—useful as a sentiment overlay, not a standalone forecast. |
| Polymarket: recession by YE 2026 | ~32% implied “Yes” | Tail priced | Event-contract pricing embeds policy, earnings, and geopolitical risk; size hedges and cyclical beta accordingly. |
Sources: FRED-style series via PortfolioAI data feeds; DailySearchVolume.com for query trends; Polymarket for conditional market odds.
Commentary & Outlook
Equity and credit investors should treat 2026 as a year of asymmetric risk: the coincident macro tape is boring in a good way, while forward-looking markets still assign a meaningful probability to a hard landing before the calendar turns. That wedge argues for balance-sheet quality, visible cash conversion, and explicit scenario weights rather than a single macro bet.
For single-stock work, prioritize companies with duration risk under control (refinancing walls, floating-rate exposure), margin levers if volume slows, and end-market diversification if consumer sentiment decelerates from here. Cyclicals and small-caps can work—but size them against the still-present tail priced in prediction markets.
The next watchpoints are straightforward: whether unemployment inflects with any momentum, whether the Sahm gap approaches the rule’s historical trigger, whether recession-model probabilities lift for more than a few noisy prints, and whether corporate liquidity keeps climbing alongside wider credit spreads. Until those line up, recession remains a hedge scenario—not the modal path.