Shopify (SHOP) Stock Analysis & Long-Term Investment Report (2025)

Expert-driven analysis for long-term investors: revenue, EPS, financials, technicals, risks, and analyst targets. Updated June 2025 for PortfolioAI.

Executive Summary

• Recent revenue growth: +26.8% YoY
• Profitability: 12.7% operating margin, ROE 15.85%
• Valuation: PE 91.7x, PEG 0.038 (growth priced in but not extreme)
• Balance sheet: $5.5B cash, minimal debt (D/E 0.08)
• High institutional ownership, top funds invested
• Key risks: FX, regulatory, market volatility
• Most analysts rate BUY; price targets near/just above current price
• Recommendation: Hold/Add on dips for long-term

Fundamentals

Metric	Value
Market Cap (USD M)	147,447
PE Ratio (ttm)	91.7
PEG Ratio	0.038
Revenue Growth (ttm)	26.81%
EPS (Latest Q)	-0.53
Operating Margin (ttm)	12.7%
Free Cash Flow/share (ttm)	1.33
Return on Equity	15.85%
Return on Assets	12.96%
Gross Profit (ttm, USD M)	4,684
Debt/Equity Ratio	0.08
Price to Book	13.34

Latest data as of June 27, 2025.

Growth & Earnings

TTM Revenue: $9.4B
Gross Margin: ~49.9%
Net Profit Margin: ~17.2%
EPS (LQ): -0.53 (seasonal; turned positive in prior quarters)

Long-Term Growth Drivers:

• Continued shift of retail and SMBs online
• Fast-growing merchant base
• Expansion into Shopify Plus and enterprise-level clients
• Increasing take rates through payments, logistics, services
• International expansion

Price & Technical Analysis

ML signals: Current probability of >+5% move in next periods is 56% (bullish bias).

Analysts & Consensus

Firm	Rating	Target Price	Potential Upside
TipRanks	Buy	$114.27	1.1%
MarketBeat	Buy	$115.18	1.4%
KeyBanc	Overweight	$105	-7.6%

Risk Analysis & Ownership

Category	Impact	Notes
Currency & FX	Moderate	Significant revenue/expenditure in EUR, GBP, CAD. Fluctuations partially hedged.
Market Volatility	Moderate	Equity investments and high valuation multiples add price risk.
Interest Rates	Low	Large cash cushion; fixed-rate note exposure limited.
Tariffs/Regulation	Medium	Recent BofA report flagged e-commerce tariff risks affecting SHOP's merchants.

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