U.S. Recession Analysis Dashboard
Executive Summary
The overall signal set argues against an imminent U.S. recession, but not against a later-cycle slowdown. The Sahm-style indicator remains far below classic recession-trigger territory, unemployment is only modestly higher versus last year, and the official recession-probability series is still low at 0.8%. At the same time, the BCIg weekly growth proxy has weakened materially from its 2022 peak and corporate profits have decelerated from earlier gains.
Real GDP remains on a rising trend in the supplied history, which is the strongest counterweight to recession calls. However, public concern has clearly risen: DailySearchVolume reported 4,244 U.S. daily searches for “recession” on 2026-03-12 and an average monthly volume of 311,296, while recent media summaries of Polymarket place 2026 recession odds roughly in the 29%–37% range, with brief spikes near 43%.
Bottom line: 3 months: low risk, 6 months: moderate risk, 12 months: moderate risk. A recession is plausible over the next year, but the current hard-data backdrop is not yet consistent with a high-conviction recession call.
| Official daily recession probability | 0.8% |
|---|---|
| Sahm-style indicator | 0.27 |
| Unemployment rate | 4.4% |
| Weekly BCIg growth proxy | 6.2 |
| Recession search volume (latest daily) | 4,244 |
| Polymarket recession odds | 29%–37% |
Labor Stress Indicators
Growth & Official Recession Probability
Market / Attention Signals
Risk Table
| Indicator | Latest | Interpretation | Signal | Why It Matters |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SAHMCURRENT | 0.27 | Well below common recession-trigger levels. | Low Risk | Sahm-style labor rule is designed to catch recession onset via unemployment deterioration. |
| UNRATE | 4.4% | Up from 2023 lows, but not yet recessionary in isolation. | Watch | Rising unemployment often leads or confirms cyclical slowdown. |
| RECPROUSM156N | 0.8% | Official probability series remains very low. | Low Risk | Direct model-based recession probability from macro data. |
| BCIG | 6.2 | Positive, but far below the 2021–2022 expansion highs. | Watch | Broad growth proxy; deterioration can foreshadow weaker activity. |
| GDPC1 | 24,066 | Trend remains upward in the supplied dataset. | Low Risk | Real GDP is the core macro benchmark for expansion vs contraction. |
| MMMFFAQ027S | 7,774,050 | Corporate profits expanded through 2025 in this history. | Low Risk | Profit weakness often precedes hiring cuts, capex pullbacks, and recession. |
| Daily “recession” search volume | 4,244 | Attention elevated, but search activity is sentiment—not hard data. | Moderate | Search spikes often accompany macro anxiety, media intensity, and hedging behavior. |
| Polymarket recession odds | 29%–37% | Markets assign meaningful but not dominant recession odds. | Moderate | Prediction markets aggregate fast-moving macro expectations and event risk. |
Professional Commentary & Outlook
What argues against recession now
- Sahm-style labor stress remains subdued.
- Official recession-probability series is still near zero.
- Real GDP trend in the supplied series is still rising.
- Corporate profits do not yet show broad recession-style collapse.
What keeps risk elevated
- Unemployment is higher than its 2023 floor.
- BCIg has weakened materially from post-pandemic highs.
- Public and market concern has risen sharply.
- Prediction markets are pricing a non-trivial recession probability for 2026.
What to watch next
- Further rise in unemployment toward or above 4.7%–5.0%.
- Sahm-style indicator moving decisively higher.
- Any broad rollover in GDP nowcasts or profits.
- Persistence of elevated recession-search intensity and prediction-market odds.
Base case: slower expansion, not immediate recession. The hard-data stack remains more constructive than the attention/sentiment stack. That gap is important: when soft signals rise before hard data turns, the correct stance is usually heightened monitoring rather than aggressive recession positioning. If labor data worsens and growth proxies soften further, the 12-month risk assessment would need to shift upward quickly.