Recession Risk Dashboard August 13, 2026
A balanced macro signal: recession risk is contained, but credit and labor-market inflections remain important.
Executive Summary
PortfolioAI’s dashboard does not show a recession as the base case over the next year. The Sahm Rule indicator is -0.03, unemployment is 4.1%, and real GDP is holding near 24,270.6 in the latest daily series. Polymarket pricing places the probability of a U.S. recession by year-end 2026 near 8%. Taken together, the evidence points to continued expansion rather than an imminent contraction.
Assessment is directional, not a guarantee. Market-implied odds can change quickly and should be read alongside realized economic data.
Macro Signal Trends
Unemployment Rate
Monthly observations; latest available reading is 4.1% through July 2026.
Sahm Rule Indicator
A sustained move toward 0.50 would be a materially weaker labor signal; the latest reading is -0.03.
Real GDP Index
Daily-aligned series; the latest observation remains above the 2021 base.
Alternative Sentiment Checks
- Searches for “recession”: 1,518 on August 12, down 1.4% week over week and 78.0% year over year.
- Polymarket recession-by-year-end odds: approximately 8%.
- Search interest remains event-driven; a sustained acceleration would be more informative than a single-day spike.
Indicator Risk Table
| Indicator | Latest | Direction | Recession read-through |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sahm Rule (SAHMCURRENT) | -0.03 | Favorable | Well below the commonly watched 0.50 trigger zone. |
| Business Conditions (BCIG) | 8.3 | Watch | Recent weekly improvement is encouraging, but the series is volatile. |
| Recession Probability (RECPROUSM156N) | 0.6% | Low | Model-implied probability remains subdued. |
| Real GDP (GDPC1) | 24,270.6 | Resilient | Output has not signaled a broad contraction in the latest observations. |
| Unemployment (UNRATE) | 4.1% | Contained | Labor slack is higher than cycle lows but not recessionary by itself. |
| Money Supply (MMMFFAQ027S) | 8.29 million | Watch | Liquidity conditions deserve monitoring as policy and credit evolve. |
| “Recession” search volume | 1,518 daily | Cooling | Interest is sharply below the prior-year level, reducing near-term narrative pressure. |
Professional Commentary & Outlook
The central question is no longer whether growth is perfect; it is whether slowing demand becomes self-reinforcing. Current labor data argues against that outcome. The unemployment rate has eased from its recent highs, while the Sahm signal remains far from a recessionary threshold. That combination gives the economy a buffer against ordinary earnings or policy disappointments.
Credit is the principal vulnerability. The business-conditions series has improved recently, but its week-to-week swings make it a useful early-warning gauge rather than a standalone forecast. Investors should watch whether weakness spreads from rate-sensitive sectors into payrolls, household income, and broad consumer spending.
Portfolio implication: maintain a balanced posture rather than making a binary recession trade. Quality balance sheets, defensive cash flows, and duration hedges can provide resilience, while cyclicals should be sized with explicit downside limits. A rapid rise in unemployment, a sustained deterioration in business conditions, or a renewed surge in recession searches would justify a more defensive allocation.