U.S. Recession Risk Dashboard
Prediction markets and Goldman Sachs both lean away from an imminent downturn, while labor remains the dashboard's swing factor for July 10, 2026.
Executive Summary
The recession setup still looks like a late-cycle watch list, not a confirmed contraction call. The near-term signal improved as oil-shock anxiety faded, Polymarket-derived odds sat near 10.0%, and Goldman Sachs reportedly cut its 12-month U.S. recession probability to 15%. The offset is labor: unemployment is no longer exceptionally tight, so the next few monthly jobs readings matter more than another day of calm prediction-market pricing.
Interactive Macro Charts
Labor stress: Sahm Rule and unemployment
The Sahm Rule remains well below a classic trigger, but the unemployment rate shows why labor is still the key confirmation variable.
Model recession probability
The daily recession-probability series remains near the floor, consistent with a low near-term contraction signal.
Credit stress and cash cushion
Financial stress has eased while money-market assets remain large, a mix that supports a cautious expansion rather than a forced de-risking call.
Recession Risk Table
| Indicator | Latest | Signal | PortfolioAI read |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sahm Rule current indicator | 0.07 on 2026-06-26 | Contained | Far from recession-trigger territory; no immediate labor-break confirmation. |
| Unemployment rate | 4.2% on 2026-06-26 | Watch | Not alarming by level, but important if claims, payrolls, and household employment deteriorate together. |
| U.S. recession probability model | 0.54% on 2026-07-09 | Low | Model risk remains subdued and does not argue for an imminent downturn. |
| Real GDP level | 24,180.4 on 2026-07-09 | Expanding | Output is holding above recent levels rather than confirming broad contraction. |
| Credit / financial stress proxy | 8.3 on 2026-05-08 | Eased | Credit is not currently the dominant recession trigger, though a renewed rise would matter quickly. |
| Money-market fund assets | $8.29T on 2026-01-30 | Liquidity cushion | Large cash balances support defensive income demand and potential risk reallocation if macro confidence improves. |
| Consumer search anxiety: “recession” | 2,016 daily searches on 2026-07-08 | Cooling | DailySearchVolume shows interest down 50.8% versus roughly 30 days earlier and down 69.1% year over year. |
| Prediction-market odds | 10.0% on 2026-07-10 | Low | MacroMicro's Polymarket-derived recession-by-end-2026 series slipped from 10.5% to 10.0%. |
| Economist forecast marker | Goldman Sachs 15% 12-month odds | Tail risk | Lower oil/geopolitical risk improved the forecast, but slow consumer spending and payroll cooling keep it from becoming an all-clear. |
Portfolio Commentary & Outlook
The macro debate has narrowed. In the spring, recession risk was dominated by oil, tariff, and credit-stress headlines. Today, the cleaner read is that the economy is slowing without cracking. That favors portfolios built around quality earnings, visible demand, and balance-sheet flexibility rather than blunt recession hedges.
For the next three months, the dashboard argues against overpaying for crash protection. Defensive healthcare, insurance, cash-rich large caps, and broad index exposure can still make sense, but the data does not yet justify abandoning economically sensitive winners wholesale. If growth remains slow but positive, the opportunity set can include industrial automation, power infrastructure, select financials with strong underwriting, and resilient healthcare cash flows.
The trigger for a true defensive pivot would be a synchronized move: unemployment grinding higher, the Sahm measure accelerating toward 0.50, credit stress rising, recession search interest plateauing at elevated levels, and prediction markets repricing above the mid-teens. Until that combination appears, PortfolioAI's base case is cautious expansion with a moderate recession tail, not a recessionary base case.
Sources
Indicator series: PortfolioAI macro data feed for SAHMCURRENT, BCIG, RECPROUSM156N, GDPC1, UNRATE, and MMMFFAQ027S. Search interest: DailySearchVolume. Prediction-market odds: MacroMicro Polymarket recession series. Forecast/news context: Goldman Sachs/TheStreet coverage of the July recession-probability cut.