US Recession Dashboard May 2026
Macro stress gauges, crowd pricing, and search sentiment on contraction risk
Executive Summary
The US macro picture remains expansionary with late-cycle friction, not recessionary. Real GDP continues to grind higher, the Sahm Rule proxy sits well below its 0.50 tripwire, and the unemployment rate has stabilized near 4.3%. Financial conditions have eased from the spring 2026 trough, while model-based recession odds and public search interest have both cooled from earlier-year spikes.
- 3 months: Low recession risk. Labor and output data show deceleration, not contraction. The Sahm Rule at 0.13 implies no automatic recession signal.
- 6 months: Low-to-moderate risk. Gradual labor-market slack and elevated money-market fund balances argue for vigilance if hiring weakens further.
- 12 months: Moderate risk. Polymarket prices a 22% chance of a US recession by year-end 2026—material but not the consensus path.
Sahm Rule proxy (monthly) vs Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index (weekly, sampled).
UNRATE (monthly) and NY Fed recession probability model (daily, %).
Real GDP, billions of chained 2017 dollars (quarterly).
Risk Table
| Indicator | Latest | Trend | Recession Read |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sahm Rule Proxy (SAHMCURRENT) | 0.13 (Apr 2026) | Easing | Far below the 0.50 trigger; labor cooling without disorderly layoffs. |
| Chicago Fed Financial Conditions (BCIG) | 8.3 (May 2026) | Improving | Rebounded from a 4.0 spring low; stress easing versus early 2026. |
| NY Fed Recession Model (RECPROUSM156N) | 1.82% (May 28, 2026) | Stable | Model-implied 12-month recession odds remain low in absolute terms. |
| Real GDP (GDPC1) | $24,152.7B (May 28, 2026) | Rising | No output contraction; growth pace matters more than level in late cycle. |
| Unemployment Rate (UNRATE) | 4.3% (Apr 2026) | Drifting up | Above 2023 trough but historically benign; watch for acceleration above 4.5%. |
| Money Market Fund Assets (MMMFFAQ027S) | $8.19T (Q3 2025) | Elevated | Defensive cash parking signals caution even as equities hold highs. |
| Google Search: “recession” (EN-US) | 2,439/day (May 27, 2026) | Fading | Down 41.6% vs 30 days ago and 74.5% vs one year ago; anxiety off prior peaks. |
| Polymarket: US recession by end-2026 | 22% “Yes” | Priced risk | Crowd sees tail risk but ~78% implied odds of no NBER recession this year. |
Professional Commentary & Outlook
The cross-currents in this dashboard describe a long slowdown, not a break. GDP has not rolled over, the Sahm Rule remains dormant, and financial conditions have improved from the March–April 2026 compression. That combination is inconsistent with an imminent recession call.
What keeps risk managers attentive is the shape of the cycle: unemployment has drifted higher from its 2023 lows, money-market assets sit near record levels, and prediction markets still assign meaningful probability to a 2026 downturn. Search interest in “recession” has fallen sharply, which often coincides with markets refocusing on growth narratives rather than stress headlines—but it can also mean complacency if labor data deteriorates abruptly.
Portfolio implications: favor quality balance sheets and durable cash flows while maintaining a liquidity sleeve. Cyclicals can work while output expands, but late-cycle positioning argues for trimming exposure to highly leveraged consumer and commercial real estate if unemployment accelerates. Utilities, staples, and select healthcare names historically outperform when recession odds reprice higher.
Scenarios:
- Base case (55%): Slow growth, contained unemployment, no NBER recession in 2026.
- Bear case (25%): Credit tightening or policy shock pushes unemployment above 5% and tips the Sahm Rule toward trigger territory.
- Bull case (20%): Disinflation plus stable hiring extend the expansion; recession odds compress toward single digits.
Sources: FRED-aligned series via PortfolioAI (SAHMCURRENT, BCIG, RECPROUSM156N, GDPC1, UNRATE, MMMFFAQ027S); DailySearchVolume.com; Polymarket US recession by end-2026 contract.