Potential Stock Buys October 2025

Earnings season watchlist, AI leaders, catalysts to monitor, and a disciplined risk plan

Executive Summary

With Q3 earnings season beginning in the second full week of October, we favor a barbell of:

  • AI infrastructure & software leaders with durable demand and pricing power.
  • Quality cash-flow compounders that can defend margins if growth cools.
  • Selective cyclicals and commodities tied to AI data centers and electrification (copper), plus defensive hedges (gold exposure).

Below you’ll find top ideas, catalysts, a thematic allocation, and a practical execution and risk framework.

Macro & Earnings Setup

  • Earnings season: Bank-led kickoff in mid-October; early week-of-Oct-6 reports include consumer and travel bellwethers.
  • Estimates: Street EPS expectations have been edging higher into the prints; breadth of beats will steer leadership.
  • Macro: Jobs and inflation remain key; the October CPI prints mid-November, making earnings the nearer-term driver.
  • Playbook: Favor quality + momentum, and buy pullbacks to support for leaders; be selective on pre-earnings entries.
Thematic Allocation for October 2025
Illustrative allocation. Adjust sizing to your risk profile.

Strategy & Screens

Screen 1: Quality — high ROIC, strong gross margin stability, net cash or modest leverage, consistent FCF.

Screen 2: Momentum — RS vs. sector and S&P 500, constructive bases, volume-on-up-days & price above 50/200-DMAs.

Screen 3: Catalysts — earnings visibility, product cycles (AI hardware/software), capital returns, and secular demand (data centers, electrification).

Top Potential Buys for October 2025

AI Infrastructure
  • AVGO (Broadcom) — Networking & custom silicon leverage hyperscaler AI capex; backlog and pricing discipline support margins.
  • TSM (Taiwan Semi) — Leading-edge capacity for AI GPUs/ASICs; utilization tailwinds as new nodes ramp.
  • ASML — EUV/High-NA exposure with multi-year shipment visibility; structural scarcity value.
  • MU (Micron) — HBM and high-density memory demand tied to AI training/inference; cyclical pricing recovery.
AI Software & Cloud
  • MSFT — AI monetization across Copilot, Azure, and Security; best-in-class margins and balance sheet.
  • ORCL — OCI capacity adds, AI workloads, and database modernization; improving growth/margin mix.
  • NOW (ServiceNow) — Workflow AI adoption driving expansion; high net retention and cash generation.
Cyclicals, Commodities & Financials
  • FCX (Freeport-McMoRan) — Copper leverage to data centers, EVs, and grid buildout; operational torque.
  • NEM (Newmont) — Gold beta and cash flow; a portfolio hedge if macro volatility rises.
  • JPM — Best-in-class scale, diversified fee income; capital return and deposit stability into earnings.
Healthcare & Crypto-Linked
  • LLY (Eli Lilly) — GLP-1 leadership and pipeline optionality; premium justified by growth/visibility.
  • COIN (Coinbase) — Leverage to crypto activity cycles; operational efficiency improves through cycles.
Composite Scores
Scoring framework: 40% Quality, 40% Momentum/Technicals, 20% Catalysts. Scores are illustrative to guide research and risk sizing.

Earnings Calendar Highlights (Oct)

  • Week of Oct 6: Consumer and travel bellwethers (e.g., PEP, DAL). Consider post-print setups if gaps hold on volume.
  • Mid-October: Large banks typically report first; watch NIM commentary, deposit trends, and credit quality.
  • Late October into November: Mega-cap tech waves in; watch AI monetization updates and opex discipline.

Tip: Prefer adding on constructive post-earnings reactions (gap-and-go or tight inside days) rather than front-running uncertain prints.

Execution & Risk Plan

Entries
  • Prefer pullbacks to rising 20–50DMA or breakout retests that hold on below-average volume.
  • Avoid chasing extended moves >10% above 20DMA unless on exceptional catalysts with tight risk.
  • For pre-earnings entries, size smaller and be prepared to add only if reaction confirms.
Risk Controls
  • Initial stops: 8–12% for large-caps; adjust to structure/ATR. Consider 5–7% for lower-vol names.
  • Position sizing: risk per idea ≤ 0.5–1.0% of portfolio; pyramid only on strength.
  • Hedges: pair with gold (IAU) or low beta when breadth deteriorates.

How This Complements PortfolioAI Systems

Our systems provide simple, disciplined signals. As of early October 2025, live system exposures include:

  • Market Risk On / Off: SPY
  • Best of Big Tech & Friends: META, NVDA, TSLA
  • Best Two Commodities: DBB (base metals), IAU (gold)
  • Bitcoin System: IBIT (Bitcoin ETF)

The discretionary watchlist above aims to complement these core signals with targeted exposure to AI infrastructure/software, selective financials, and commodity beneficiaries.

Sources & Notes

This report is for educational purposes only and is not investment advice. Markets involve risk, including loss of principal.